Simulation Creates Realities

 

Simulation Creates Realities

I can see a near future where humans stop smashing things in real life just to see what happens. No more expensive crash tests, no more wind tunnels sucking up billions of dollars, no more logistic and production nightmare on construction site or “oops, we broke another robot.” Instead, simulations will do the heavy lifting. Immense AI databases will crunch the properties of materials down to the atomic level and give us the most precise outcome imaginable.

And honestly we’re already halfway there. Today, companies use AI to simulate how robots move, or to teach one how to do a backflip. Is that a useful feature? Probably not. But hey, at least it’s cheaper to fail in virtual reality than in the factory, where “oops” means six months of repairs and a crying engineer.

The result? Fewer broken robots, fewer wasted weeks, and a lot more laughing at digital screw-ups before trying them in real life. We are heading into a world where we trust the simulation first and if the real world disagrees we’ll probably assume reality just failed to read the coorect instructions.

Think about designing a car, a plane, or even a wind turbine. In the old days you had to physically build and test prototypes in a real wind tunnel. Not cheap. Not simple. With simulations, you just throw in your desired parameters and let the algorithms test a billion possibilities in the time it takes you to make coffee. Then, only the best options get tested in reality.

This mindset is everywhere now. AlphaFold, for example, simulates how proteins fold out of millions of possible ways, narrowing it down so scientists only need a handful of lab tests to confirm. In the past, researchers would run endless trial-and-error experiments until they found something that stuck. Now? A few clicks on a laptop, and voilà science speeds up.

Of course, early simulations were hilariously wrong. But with feedback loops engineers, programers, chemists, doctors correcting them with real data, AI got smarter. Eventually these systems become better at predicting than humans, or even than nature seems to allow. That’s the weird part: when your model of reality starts to outperform reality itself.

How is that possible? By making an incredibly precise copy down to the atomic level of the real world. At that point, it’s hard to argue the simulation isn’t “real.” It’s like recording a video: nobody says the video isn’t reality just because it’s digital. A simulation works the same way, except instead of replaying the past, it’s predicting the future. In other words, a simulation is like a video of reality that hasn’t happened yet, a preview of worlds, events, and possibilities that only exist once the simulation imagines them.

  

Simulations as Prophecy?

With that logic, why not run simulations of bigger things? Like the probability of authoritarian regimes collapsing in the next 5 or 10 years. Sounds ridiculous, right? And yet… here’s a graph:

 

 Authoritarian Regime Collapse Probabilities 

In the same way, it is possible to simulate the probability of democratic countries sliding into authoritarianism.

Democracies at risk of sliding into dictatorship

I even pushed it further with a few speculative events: people landing on the Moon again, the first 123-year-old human, UBI adoption, AI surgeons, robot-only delivery services, human composting… you name it.

Simulated Future Event

Event	5-yr	10-yr	Why (key drivers) (source)
People landing on the Moon again	70%	95%	Artemis program scheduled for a crewed landing window and multiple national/private lunar programs (redundancy raises near-certainty by 10 years).
First person to live longer than 123 years	1%	5%	Jeanne Calment’s 122y record remains extreme; some longevity biotech progress exists but a verified >123 within 5–10 years is still unlikely.
Universal Basic Income (nationwide adoption in at least one major economy)	5–10%	20–30%	Many pilots and policy debates are ongoing; political & fiscal resistance slow full national adoption, but pressure rises with automation/inequality.
Global deflationary economy (persistent global price declines)	15%	25%	Demographics + automation are deflationary forces, but geopolitical shocks and recent inflation make persistent global deflation less likely short-term.
Global unemployment (average rate) — where it will be	5–7%	6–9%	Baseline 5% today; technology can raise structural unemployment but new jobs + policy can offset; wide regional variation expected.
Wide-range adoption of dry toilets (significant uptake in cities/regions)	10%	25%	Growing interest for sanitation /Water/Nutrient recovery especially in resource-stressed/eco projects; barriers: infrastructure, culture, regulation.
Fully autonomous AI surgeon (performs e.g., heart or other major surgery without human control)	2%	10%	Research shows autonomous steps and animal/bench successes, and some complex autonomous procedures in controlled trials — but full regulatory/ethical/edge-case safety for human major surgery is a big hurdle.
Autonomous / remote robotic construction site (large scale, low human presence)	15%	40%	Robotics adoption accelerating (bricklaying, drilling, prefabrication), but full autonomous sites face complex logistics, safety, and standards issues.
100% robot/drone delivery (most parcel/food deliveries handled only by robots/drones)	5%	20%	Rapid market growth and pilots; regulatory, airspace and cost constraints make complete replacement unlikely within 10 years, but localized networks likely.
Rejuvenation that reverses aging of all body parts (full-body rejuvenation)	0.5%	2%	Promising lab breakthroughs (partial reprogramming, senolytics), but whole-organism, safe, universal rejuvenation with lifespan reset is a very high bar in 10 years.
First human on Mars	5%	30–40%	SpaceX and others aim for Mars in the 2020s–2030s; huge technical, financial, and safety barriers but several committed programs make a human Mars landing plausible by 10–15 years.
100% remote jobs in most fields (majority of roles remote)	2%	10%	Remote/hybrid growth continues (many jobs hybrid), but many sectors require onsite work; full majority remote across most fields is unlikely.
Office buildings widely converted (to apartments, greenhouses, data centers, battery storage)	10%	30%	Conversions are accelerating (millions sq.ft pipeline), supported by policy and economic incentives; significant conversion within 10 years is plausible in many markets.
Collect human urine for fertilizer and feces for electricity production (wide adoption)	15%	35%	Multiple pilots and research show nutrient recovery & energy from waste is feasible; scaling depends on culture, regulation and infrastructure investment.
Bodies treated as resource at end-of-life (composting / nutrient/energy extraction widely accepted)	10%	30%	Human composting/legalization is expanding; other resource-recovery models (nutrient recycling, thermal conversion) face legal/cultural barriers but are growing.

Some of these probabilities might sound ridiculous, but they’re examples of how simulations can frame reality. Would you trust a fully autonomous AI surgeon in 5 years? Only 2% chance. Would you trade your urine as fertilizer? 15% chance in 5 years. And maybe, just maybe, someone will blow out 123 candles and make history.

The Big Question

So, are we living in a simulation? Short answer: no. We’re nowhere near being able to simulate the universe at atomic scale. Just simulating our solar system at that level would require a Type III civilization. That’s galactic scale. If we are in a simulation, then the computer running it must be bigger than the universe itself which is like saying your phone is bigger than your house.

Still, our awareness is rising. Maybe the closer we get to simulating reality, the more we’ll notice reality behaving like a simulation it is like climate models get so good at prediction that weather feels like it’s “running the simulation script. That’s either comforting or terrifying depending on how many times you’ve rage-quit a video game.

But here’s the twist. The moment our simulations start influencing how we build, plan, and even think, reality bends to fit them. Cities are already designed with digital twins. Stock markets react to algorithmic forecasts before the actual news drops. Doctors trust AI scans that “see” things their own eyes can’t. The simulation doesn’t just mirror reality anymore it nudges it.

And that’s the real mind-bender: we don’t have to simulate the whole universe for reality to feel simulated. We just need enough people making decisions based on models. Once everyone’s marching to the same simulated drumbeat, reality itself starts dancing to a forecast.

So, no, we’re not in a cosmic video game run by aliens with too much free time. But yes, in a smaller, more practical sense, we’re already living in realities generated by our own simulations. The question isn’t if we’re in a simulation it’s whose simulation we’re choosing to believe.